March Madness 2018 - Final Four Scenarios

Here's a complete breakdown of how the pools will shake out based on the eight different scenarios that can take place next weekend at the Final Four.  Each scenario will show the national championship result and who will finish top three in each pool should that result take place.

Loyola-Chicago over Villanova

Main Pool:

1. Scott
2. Jen/Jenn
3. Jen/Jenn

Gamblers Pool:

1. Nick
2. Jimmy
3. Jenn

Loyola-Chicago over Kansas

Main Pool:

1. Lu
2. Luke/Scott
3. Luke/Scott

Gamblers Pool:

1. Nick
2. Jimmy/Luke
3. Jimmy/Luke

Michigan over Villanova

Main Pool:

1. Scott
2. Jen/Jenn
3. Jen/Jenn

Gamblers Pool:

1. Nick
2. Jimmy
3. Jenn

Michigan over Kansas

Main Pool:

1. Lu
2. Luke/Scott
3. Luke/Scott

Gamblers Pool:

1. Nick
2. Jimmy/Luke
3. Jimmy/Luke

Villanova over Loyola-Chicago

Main Pool:

1. Scott
2. Jen
3. Yarmela

Gamblers Pool:

1. Nick
2. Jimmy
3. Jenn/Shaymus

Villanova over Michigan

Main Pool:

1. Scott
2. Jen
3. Yarmela

Gamblers Pool:

1. Nick
2. Jimmy
3. Jenn/Shaymus

Kansas over Loyola-Chicago

Main Pool:

1. Lu
2. Luke
3. Joe

Gamblers Pool:

1. Luke
2. Nick
3. Jimmy

Kansas over Michigan

Main Pool:

1. Lu
2. Luke
3. Joe

Gamblers Pool:

1. Nick
2. Luke
3. Jimmy

March Madness 2018 - Day 8

Loyola-Chicago and Michigan had filled out half of the Final Four field.  Sunday's regional finals would determine who would join them.  Up first was the East regional final, followed by a heavyweight battle in the Midwest:

• Villanova had yet to run into a team that could give them a challenge for 40 minutes.  Their first round opponent, Radford, was only competitive for 5 minutes.  Second round foe Alabama hung tough for 20 minutes before the Wildcats broke the game open.  West Virginia actually held a second half lead in the Sweet 16, but their breaking point was the 30 minute mark as Villanova dominated the last 10 minutes of the game.  Texas Tech was next in line to try and shut down the team many think will cut down the nets in San Antonio.  The Red Raiders are a very athletic bunch, but like Kansas State, they rely on their defense rather than their offense to win games.  They would have their hands full trying to shut down Villanova's high-powered offense.  In the first half, the Red Raiders looked in over their heads.  They struggled to score, only putting up 23 points in 20 minutes, while Villanova played their usual game, scoring 36 points to go to the break with a 13-point halftime lead.  As Virginia, UMBC, and Kansas State all discovered in the South region, stifling defense can only take you so far if you can't put the ball in the hoop at the other end.  It looked like Texas Tech was about to learn the same lesson. Surprisingly, the Red Raiders hung tough.  Their defense was even stingier in the second half, frustrating Villanova for a long stretch.  Texas Tech decided they couldn't come back shooting threes, so they drove the lane over and over again with mixed results.  They were drawing closer to the Wildcats, but they would have put a real scare into the favorites had they converted more of these close-range opportunities.  The lead was down to 5 with four minutes to go, but that would be as close as Texas Tech would get.  The most underrated weapon that Villanova has is their ability to shoot free throws, meaning it is nearly impossible to make up a late deficit against them.  The Wildcats once again knocked down most of their free throws, while Texas Tech was unable to hit the three-pointers they needed at the end of the game.  Villanova is your East region champ after a 71-59 victory.
• The marquee matchup of the Elite Eight featured two programs who always seem to play deep into March.  On one side, you had the #1 seeded Kansas Jayhawks, champions of the Big 12.  On the other, you had the #2 seeded Blue Devils, a team filled with superstar freshmen and one very polarizing senior, Grayson Allen.  Allen is known for his long-range sharpshooting as well as his penchant for bending the rules.  For some reason, he has felt the need to trip and body-check players on the opposing team, leading to an increased spotlight on him whenever he's involved in a questionable play.  The spotlight would fall on him again in this game, but at least it was for actual basketball reasons this time.  These two teams were expected to be evenly matched and that is how this game turned out to be.  Duke held the biggest lead in the first half (4 points).  Early on in the second half, the Jayhawks took a 7-point lead, but that was very short-lived.  For most of the second half, the teams traded buckets and the lead.  Each team had a big man in foul trouble, with Kansas losing center Udoka Azuibuike with just under 2 minutes to go.  The Blue Devils held a three-point lead with 30 seconds left, but Kansas hit a three to tie it.  That gave Duke the chance to hold the ball for a potential game-winning shot.  They put the ball in Allen's hands and it was clear he was not giving it up.  As the final seconds ticked down, he drove to the left part of the lane, trying to draw a foul before putting up a bank shot.  The ball circled the rim, hit the backboard, and circled the rim a second time before falling off at the buzzer.  It seemed like there was no way that shot couldn't go in, but somehow it found a way to spin out.  The game went to overtime where (and I can't believe I'm about to write this) Duke seemed to get robbed on two calls.  The first one was the more crucial of the two.  The Jayhawks were being carried by guard Malik Newman in this game and he tried to do it all in the overtime.  With less than 3 minutes to go, he drove into Wendell Carter Jr., the Duke big man who had been in foul trouble.  Carter may have slightly leaned to his left as he was barreled into, but it sure looked like a charge to this Duke-hater.  The ref called a block and Carter had fouled out.  Later on, there would be a ball that was tipped out of bounds that the refs said was off Kansas, but after a ridiculously long replay, they deemed there was indisputable evidence that the ball had hit off of Duke last.  (Note: If there is indisputable evidence, then it shouldn't take 5 minutes to figure out whose ball it is.).  Duke fell behind and resorted to three-point attempts to catch the Jayhawks, but nothing would fall until the game was basically over.  Allen would hit a 3 with a few seconds left to end his college career, but it wasn't enough as Kansas would move on to play Villanova following an 85-81 overtime victory over Duke.

The standings might still look bunched, but we have a lot more clarity on who is likely to win each pool at this point.  In the main pool, Scott Brown leads by one over Jen Shields and Jenn Nichols, but Scott holds the trump card of having Villanova as his national champion.  No one has Loyola-Chicago or Michigan winning it all, so only the top entry with Kansas as national champ can catch Scott.  That entry belongs to Luis Ramirez.  So whoever wins the second semifinal on Saturday night will determine the winner of the main pool.  For the gamblers pool, Big Nick is getting ready for his victory lap.  The only way he can lose is if Kansas defeats Loyola-Chicago in the national championship.  If that happens, Luke McLoughlin will be your champ.  As it stands right now though, Nick holds a two-point lead over Jimmy O'Connor with Jenn another point back in 3rd.

I will send out a post later in the week that will show the top 3 in each pool based on the eight different Final Four scenarios that could happen next weekend.

To see the standings with just three games to go, click here.

March Madness 2018 - Day 7

Time to punch tickets for the Final Four!  The South region and West region would be decided on Saturday night.  Who would advance to play in the first semifinal in San Antonio?  Here's the Day 7 recap:

• After UMBC beat Virginia in a historic first round upset, you never would have guessed some other team could replace them as the darlings of this year's tournament.  But Loyola-Chicago's run to the Elite Eight had put them on at least level playing ground with UMBC as the team you will most remember from this year's tournament.  To be fair, UMBC didn't have 98-year-old Sister Jean helping their cause.  The smiling nonagenarian has become the face of the Ramblers, making them impossible to root against.  They would be taking on another Cinderella, Kansas State, for the first ticket to San Antonio, where next week's Final Four will take place.  In any other year, the Wildcats might have been the team that the casual college basketball fan would be rallying around.  They've played the majority of this tournament without their best player, yet somehow they were able to get to the Elite Eight.  In this game they would play the role of favorite, which was a bit odd.  9-seed Kansas State was actually the lowest seeded team that Loyola-Chicago had faced in this tournament, having gone through 6-seed Miami, 3-seed Tennessee, and 7-seed Nevada to get to this point.  The Ramblers didn't look intimidated at all by the stakes of this game, jumping out to a 19-7 lead.  That was bad news for a Kansas State team that has relied on their defense all year long.  They weren't used to manufacturing offense to dig themselves out of big holes.  After the Wildcats narrowed the lead to 5, Loyola-Chicago used their highly efficient offense to build the lead back up to 12 at halftime.  It would have been natural for nerves to kick in at that point and to see Kansas State claw back into this game in the opening minutes of the second half, but the Ramblers were relentless.  Over the course of the next 10 minutes, Loyola-Chicago grew their lead to 23 and it was no longer a question of whether the Ramblers could hold on.  It was how much were they going to win by.  As Kansas State reached desperation mode, they were finally able to put together a run.  The lead was down to 12 with three minutes left and the Wildcats looked to have cut it to 9 on a three-pointer, but somehow the ball spun around the inside of the rim and popped back out.  I think it was the power of Sister Jean.  The Ramblers put away the Wildcats from that point on, eventually winning by a score of 78-62.  Sister Jean is headed to the Final Four!
• Florida State would try to get redemption for the 9-seeds in the nightcap against Michigan.  The Seminoles played so badly at the end of the season that they went from being a lock to make to the tournament to a team that had to sweat a little bit on Selection Sunday.  It was unlikely they would get snubbed, but their seed certainly plummeted over the past month.  They regained their mojo once the tournament began though, beating three quality teams (Missouri, Xavier, and Gonzaga) on their way to the Elite Eight.  Their path to the Final Four was being blocked by a Michigan team who looked lethargic in round one, needed a miracle in round two, then looked like the Big 10 champs in a 27-point rout of Texas A&M.  Which team would show up in the West regional final?  Certainly not the team that put up 99 in that Sweet Sixteen game.  This would be a low scoring affair with a controversial finish.  Neither team would gain much of an advantage in a first half that ended with Michigan on top by a point.  The Wolverines extended that lead with the first major run of the game, an 11-2 spurt to begin the second half.  Florida State would get themselves within one possession several times, but it looked like they would never be able to get over the hump.  Michigan led by 10 with 2:30 to go, but the Seminoles hit a jumper and then capitalized on dumb play by the Wolverines.  A foul on a 3-point attempt let Florida State hit three free throws, drawing them to within 5.  Michigan was one of the worst free throw shooting teams in the country and their ineffectiveness from the charity stripe let Florida State hang around.  The Seminoles had a look at a three-pointer to tie the game in the final minute, but it didn't fall.  Down 4 with 15 seconds left, Florida State took an ugly three that Michigan would rebound.  And then for some reason, the Seminoles refused to foul.  Michigan had missed 4 of 8 free throws in the last two minutes of the game.  Virginia had won a game earlier this year when they were down by 4 with two seconds left.  Florida State had simply had enough and called it a day.  Michigan was all too happy to dribble out the clock and celebrate, punching their ticket to San Antonio with a 58-54 victory.  They will take on Loyola-Chicago in one national semifinal.  (Note: Be sure to check out the gem of an interview by Florida State coach Leonard Hamilton after the game.  He was not excited about being asked why his team didn't foul at the end of the game.)

The left side of most people's brackets had already been crossed out by the time these two games took place, so there was very little movement in the standings.  Jen Shields still leads Scott Brown by three.  Jenn Nichols now has company in third place.  Last year's champ, Will Peerenboom, had Michigan in the Final Four, so he climbed into a third place tie with Jenn.  In the gamblers pool, Big Nick has taken a stranglehold on things with Michigan's trip to the Final Four.  If Villanova reaches the national championship, Nick will win no matter what.  He might not even need that if Michigan reaches the national championship.  Jimmy O'Connor is 2 points back and Jenn is 3 points back, but neither can catch Nick in the games remaining.  There are a few entries further back in the standings that have Kansas or Duke who might be able to catch Nick, but they need a lot of things to go their way.

For a look at the complete standings, click here.

March Madness 2018 - Day 6

Friday marked the first time in the tournament where there were not any real Cinderellas to root for.  Aside from Syracuse, everyone playing on Friday night was a 5-seed or better.  And it's a little difficult to classify the Orange as a Cinderella when they are an ACC school with loads of past tournament success.  So how would an evening's worth of battles amongst top schools turn out?  Here's your Day 6 recap:

• The first game of the night was a Big 12-ACC showdown between #1 seed Kansas and #5 seed Clemson.  The Jayhawks were not overly impressive during the opening weekend of the tournament, beating but not blowing out Penn and Seton Hall.  Clemson, on the other hand, hadn't broken a sweat in either of their two games.  They held an 18-point lead in the second half of their game against New Mexico State, which was minuscule compared to the 41-point margin they had on Auburn in round two.  They would face a lot more adversity in the Sweet 16.  For starters, the Tigers were basically playing a road game as no team got a nicer road to the Final Four than Kansas.  They didn't have to leave their home state for rounds 1 and 2 and they only had to travel to neighboring Nebraska for the regional.  The Jayhawks fed off the home crowd to build a 13-point lead at the half.  Their advantage would grow to 20 before Clemson made one last valiant run to get to the Elite Eight.  A late 13-2 run would trim the lead to six with under 2:30 to play.  The comeback would effectively stall out there.  Clemson would hit a basket in the final seconds to bring them within four, but Kansas would move on after holding on for an 80-76 victory.
• West Virginia came into their Sweet 16 game riding the same type of momentum that Clemson had after crushing their first two opponents last week.  They would get the acid test against #1 seed Villanova.  The Wildcats have taken over the mantle of tournament favorite ever since Virginia was shocked in round one.  This contest was tight throughout the first half, with Villanova holding a slim 2-point edge at the break.  The teams traded the lead for the opening 8 minutes of the second half before the Mountaineers were able to create a little bit of separation, taking a 6-point lead.  That seemed to fire up the favored Wildcats as they scored the next 11 points of the game.  Villanova showed their superiority the rest of the way, gradually increasing their lead and pulling away for a 12-point victory, 90-78.
• Game #3 was not just an all-ACC battle, it was an all-zone defense battle.  Zone defense is Syracuse's bread and butter.  No team in the country plays it better than the Orange.  The fact that very few teams in the country play zone defense makes Syracuse's zone even more potent come tournament time as their opponents constantly seem befuddled by it.  You wouldn't expect that to be the case with Duke, as they had seen it in conference play.  Not only had the Blue Devils played against it, they had adopted the zone defense as well.  Duke was one of the worst defensive teams in the nation during the first half of the season, so they switched to the zone to try and cure their defensive woes.  In general, it has worked, although their offensive output has lessened likely due to the amount of energy they are spending on the defensive end. It should come as no surprise then that this would be a relatively low-scoring battle.  Duke was down 3 late in the first half, but they would score the last 10 points before heading to the locker room, opening up a 7-point lead.  Syracuse would hang tough in the second half.  Knowing the zone as well as they do, they were able to find holes in the Blue Devils' defense.  Meanwhile, Duke seemed to be passing up easy opportunities to score.  It wasn't until they put stud player Marvin Bagley III on the free throw line that they started clicking.  The key to beating the zone is feeding the ball to the middle to a player who isn't afraid to knock down open mid-range jump shots.  Bagley started doing it repeatedly late in the second half.  The game looked to be over with Duke holding an 8-point lead and only two and a half minutes on the clock, but the Orange "had alligator blood...can't get rid of them".  They got within 3 and had the ball with 10 seconds to go, but they didn't have enough awareness to realize that Duke would foul and not let them get off a shot to tie the game.  Syracuse only made 1 free throw, Duke would make their next 2, and the Blue Devils move on with a 69-65 win.  They will play Kansas to see who will represent the Midwest region in the Final Four.
• The last game of the night would be between two unheralded high-seeded teams.  Purdue was ranked in the top 3 of the polls for a long stretch of this season, while Texas Tech led the Big 12 standings for a good portion of the year.  They would play each other in the 2-3 matchup in the East region.  The first half would be low scoring, but pretty entertaining to watch as both teams had a lot of energy on both ends of the floor.  They just weren't knocking down a whole lot of shots.  Purdue took a 20-15 lead when the Red Raiders went six minutes without a bucket, but Texas Tech would close the half on a 15-5 run to take a five-point edge to the break.  The Boilermakers had several chances to grab the lead in the opening minutes of the second half, but they missed on a couple of fast break opportunities.  That was the beginning of the end for them as Texas Tech slowly built up to a 9-point lead.  Purdue would make one last charge to get within 3 with about 6 minutes to go, but the Red Raiders would pull away yet again.  After a 78-65 victory, Texas Tech moves on to the final of the East region where they will face Villanova.

Not too many changes in the standings with just 7 games to go in this year's pools.  Jen Shields still has a 3-point edge over Scott Brown in the main pool, while Jenn Nichols remains one point further back in third place.  Jimmy O'Connor is back on top in the gambler's pool, with a one-point edge over Jenn.  Big Nick is another point back in 3rd, but he has the most dangerous looking bracket remaining.

You can see the entire standings here.

March Madness 2018 - Day 5

It's been tough living without the Madness for several days.  Luckily there was plenty of snow to shovel to keep those of us in the Northeast occupied!  (Feel free to stop by at any time, Spring.  Any time at all.)

We were back in action on Thursday night, finding out who would play in the South and West regional finals:

• Game 1 was the most unlikely Sweet 16 matchup of the weekend.  Nevada was a 7-seed who needed two huge comebacks to survive the first weekend.  Loyola-Chicago was an 11-seed who had to hit two clutch shots late in the game (possibly with the help of some divine intervention) to find their way to Atlanta for the South regional semifinals.  Something had to give in this game.  Early on, it looked like Nevada would not need a 3rd consecutive comeback.  The Wolfpack raced out to a 20-8 lead in the first eight minutes of the game.  But then Nevada went cold.  It was a combination of poor shot selection and strong Rambler defense.  The drought allowed Loyola-Chicago to grab a 4-point lead at the half, 28-24.  Nevada's chances of winning got much bleaker in the second half as Loyola-Chicago made their first 13 shots from the field, not missing until there was less than 10 minutes to go in the game.  Most of those shots were reverse layups as the Ramblers kept cutting and driving past the Wolfpack.  Loyola-Chicago went up 12 and it didn't look like Nevada had another comeback in them.  But then they didn't really need one.  Loyola-Chicago stupidly tried to run the final 9 minutes off the clock.  Possession after possession went by where they either got a shot clock violation or they hoisted up an off-balance three-pointer with 1 second left to go on the shot clock.  They let the Wolfpack back into the game and Nevada took advantage.  With 3 minutes to go, the game was tied.  The Ramblers hit a crucial three to take the lead again, but Nevada would trim the margin to 1 before missing on multiple three-point attempts with a chance to get the lead back.  Down 1 with 36 seconds remaining, the Wolfpack opted not to foul as Loyola-Chicago milked the clock.  The Ramblers put up another tough 3 right before the shot clock expired, but this one fell for them.  Up 4 with six seconds left, this one was over. Nevada would hit a 3 with one second left to tighten up the score, but it was not enough.  Sister Jean's team will play for a spot in the Final Four on Saturday as Loyola-Chicago wins 69-68.
• Game 2 started a half-hour after the Nevada vs. Loyola-Chicago game did, so there was quite a bit of overlap.  I could have flipped back and forth frantically trying to catch all of the action, but there was no need.  Texas A&M had advanced to the Sweet 16 by blowing out defending champ North Carolina, but they would be on the wrong end of the whuppin' against Michigan.  The Wolverines were already up 17 just ten minutes into the game.  By halftime, their lead was 24.  The Aggies would get no closer than 18 in the second half.  The capper came when Michigan emptied its bench in the final minute and one of their guys who doesn't see much playing time nailed a three to put the Wolverines up by 27.  Michigan advances to the West regional final with a 99-72 beatdown of Texas A&M.
• Game 3 was all about three gentlemen: Chris Rastatter, Earl Walton, and Jamie Luckie.  Don't recognize those names?  That's because they aren't McDonald's All-Americans.  Those three guys were the referees assigned to the Kansas State-Kentucky game.  They might have needed oxygen after it was all said and done because they were blowing their whistles all night long.  It was a painful game to watch as nearly every play seemed to end with a foul.  Kentucky shot 23 free throws in the first half alone!  They needed it because they couldn't hit anything from the field.  Kansas State was clearly the better team, but they only led by 4 at the half.  The second half was more of the same as each team dealt had to navigate their way through massive foul trouble.  Things began to look dire for Kansas State as they lost their backup center to fouls.  Then they lost their starting center.  Then their leading scorer was relegated to the bench.  With a minute to go, the game was tied and the tallest guy left in their lineup was 6'4".  Facing a huge size disadvantage, Kansas State tried to use their speed and it worked as they made a driving layup with 17 seconds to go.  Kentucky made the mistake that you see way too often in these games by trying to hit a go-ahead three rather than simply taking advantage of their height to tie the game.  This was a particularly bad decision since you had to believe Kentucky would win if the game went to overtime.  Kansas State rebounded the missed three and had a chance to close it out with two free throws, but they only hit one of the two, giving Kentucky one last opportunity at a tying three.  Kentucky tried to bank one in, but their poor shooting sent them home.  Kansas State will meet Loyola-Chicago in the South regional final.
• It's pretty rare that the pre-game warmups will have a major effect on a game, but it happened in the last matchup of the evening.  Gonzaga lost a key member of their team when big man Killian Tillie aggravated a hip injury and was declared out of the game.  That had a huge effect on the Bulldogs, as Tillie is a three-point threat who usually lures the big men from opposing teams out of the lane.  With Tillie unavailable, Florida State's big men were allowed to sit in the paint.  The Seminoles have several seven-footers that would hold a block party all night long.  Gonzaga's guards had to dramatically alter their shots if they drove into the lane.  Gonzaga's forwards had their post moves rejected time and time again.  It became apparent very early on that Gonzaga didn't have a great game plan for compensating for the loss of Tillie.  They fell behind by 12 quickly.  They would come back and take the lead, but it felt like that was due to a cold spell by Florida State more than a run by Gonzaga.  The Seminoles would re-establish a 9-point lead by halftime.  The Bulldogs would creep within 4 or 5 points several times in the second half, but it still never felt like they were making a serious run.  A real run would feel like the 16-6 one put together by Florida State to close out the game.  Another 9-seed is heading to the Elite Eight as Florida State will face off against Michigan in the West regional final.

We have new leaders in each of the pools and they both chose Loyola-Chicago and Michigan to reach the Elite Eight.  In the main pool, Jen Shields has taken the lead by three points over Scott Brown, wit Jenn Nichols another point back in third.  In the gamblers pool, Nick Moreno is now in a very strong position to win.  He not only has a one-point edge over Jimmy O'Connor (my apologies, I didn't realize it was Jim's son who had picked the bracket which led for 4 straight days), but Nick also predicted that Villanova would beat Michigan in the national championship.  Those two teams are the favorites on their respective halves of the bracket, so Nick will be hard to catch.  As she is in the main pool, Jenn Nichols holds third place, one point out of the runner-up spot.

To see the complete standings, please click here.

March Madness 2018 - Day 4

We had 8 games remaining on Sunday afternoon/evening to find out who would be completing this year's Sweet Sixteen.  Here's how the action went down:

• The first game of the day was actually a rematch from earlier in the year.  Folks living in Philly are familiar with the Big 5.  All of the local schools compete against one another over the course of the year.  In Indiana, they have something similar called the Crossroads Classic, where 4 big schools (Indiana, Notre Dame, Butler, and Purdue) from within the state face off against each other.  Purdue beat Butler pretty handily in that matchup, winning by 15.  The rematch would be a much closer affair.  The Bulldogs led for most of the first half, but Purdue went on a 22-10 run before intermission to take a 4-point lead.  The Boilermakers kept a two-possession advantage for most of the second half, but Butler was able to creep within two late.  The Bulldogs got one final chance when Purdue missed the front end of a 1-and-1 with less than 2 seconds to go.  However, they weren't able to duplicate Michigan's magic as a half-court heave to tie the game was off the mark.  Purdue maintains their Indiana superiority and moves on.
• Michigan State was one of the favorites to win the title early in the year and their popularity did not wane as the regular season came to a close, even though they were starting to struggle against teams with bad records.  They weren't losing, but they were barely getting by with some 3-5 point wins against the bottom of the Big Ten.  Outside distractions might have gotten to the Spartans, as no team (not even Louisville) went through as much turmoil this year.  Michigan State was not only dealing with the pay-for-play issues that many other teams were involved in as well, they were also dealing with the sexual abuse case that rocked the gymnastics world.  Coach Izzo looked exhausted and these scandals might have finally had a toll on his players.  That was the perfect recipe for a Syracuse upset.  The Orange really have no business being in this tournament, but give them credit: when they get in, they make the most of their opportunities.  They beat a floundering Arizona State team in the First Four and then they beat a team in TCU that had no idea how to handle a zone.  Michigan State got plenty of open looks against Syracuse, but they could not shoot at all.  Even when they were at the free throw line, they struggled.  25% from the field isn't going to beat anyone, but remarkably the Spartans led for most of this game despite their putrid marksmanship.  Eventually their cold shooting would doom them as Syracuse sprung a 2-point upset.
• North Carolina was the favorite to come out of the West region.  Not only were they the defending national champions, but they wound up in a part of the bracket with teams that didn't have histories of winning championships.  There was no Kentucky, no Duke, no Kansas, and no Villanova in their region.  The top seeds in the West (aside from the Tar Heels) were Xavier, Michigan, and Gonzaga.  They would have the opportunity to beat up on those teams as soon as they were finished with Texas A&M.  Except the Aggies didn't get the memo.  A trademark of this year's tournament has been upsets that weren't buzzer-beaters, but rather absolute thrashings by the underdog.  That was the case once again as Texas A&M went on a 29-8 run before the half, then came out after halftime and poured it on some more.  Time to cross out more of your bracket as the Tar Heels get routed in this one by 21.
• There was another rout taking place in Nashville as Cincinnati scored on their first 9 possessions to open up a huge early advantage against Nevada.  The lead grew to 22 with 11 minutes remaining in the game.  The Bearcats had the second best defense in the country, so there was no chance that the Wolfpack could make up that much ground, right?  Ummm...wrong.  Nevada has one of the best offenses in this year's tournament and they got it clicking over the last 11 minutes of this game while Cincinnati turned into Michigan State.  Nevada would score the next 16 points to trim the margin down to 6.  They were down 3 with under a minute left before tying it from beyond the arc.  Then they took their first lead of the game with 10 seconds left on a jumper in the lane.  The Bearcats were completely rattled.  Their last possession to tie the game was a mess.  Their guard lost his dribble, then managed to get it back before having his shot blocked.  As the teams scrambled for the loose ball, the horn sounded.  An epic comeback, an epic collapse, or a bit of both?  However you look at it, Nevada is moving on for an all-Cinderella Sweet 16 matchup with Loyola-Chicago.
• Auburn must have decided that they wanted to top Nevada's huge comeback.  That is the only explanation for the #4 seed digging themselves a 41-point hole with 9 minutes to play.  To be fair, if they had come back from that, people wouldn't even be talking about the Nevada-Cincinnati game.  However, Auburn did not come back.  They simply sucked against Clemson.  Clemson wins the battle of the Tigers by 31 in a game that didn't even feel that close.
• Everyone's new favorite team, UMBC, was up next in a matchup with Kansas State.  After beating Virginia, taking down the 4th best team from the Big 12 would be a piece of cake.  Okay, it almost never works out that way, but it nearly did here.  These two teams somehow found a way to play even worse than Syracuse and Michigan State did.  This one was ugly and for a while it seemed like the first team to reach 40 points would win.  The Retrievers kept it a three-point game with under 90 seconds left, but a Wildcat bucket extended the lead to 5, a gap which seemed insurmountable based on how UMBC was shooting.  The magic ends in round 2, but UMBC will go down in history as the team that did the impossible.  Kansas State moves on with a 50-43 victory.
• Back to Nashville where another team from Cincinnati was playing.  Xavier had just watched their city rival choke away a golden opportunity.  Cincinnati was in a bracket where the other three top seeds had already lost and they were ahead by 22.  Their path to the Final Four couldn't have been any easier.  And yet they gave it away.  Surely the Musketeers wouldn't make that mistake.  They got to see that Cincinnati meltdown in person.  They knew the favorites from their bracket (North Carolina) had been eliminated earlier.  Their path to the Final Four had been cleared.  They just had to defeat a decidedly mediocre Florida State team who had been humiliated by Louisville (not in the tournament) and NC State (didn't show up for the tournament) in the last month.  Easy peasy.  The Musketeers opened up a 12-point lead with less than 10 minutes to go.  There was no way they could mess this up.  Only they could.  Xavier got into some foul trouble and watched their lead slowly go away as the clock ticked down.  They were still up two with 90 seconds to go, but a Seminole three would give them the lead.  You could see the panic in Xavier's eyes.  Were they going to be Cincy, part deux?  Yes they were.  After Florida State hit two free throws to stretch the lead to three, Xavier had an open three from the top of the key to tie.  And they airballed it.  Bye bye to another #1 seed as Florida State moves on to play Gonzaga.
• I would love to tell you the last game of the night was similar to the Michigan-Houston finish we had to wrap up Saturday, but unfortunately it was more like Clemson-Auburn.  Marshall talked a lot about wanting to take on their in-state rival, West Virginia.  Little brother was going to show big brother how the game was played.  And early on, it looked like it could happen as the Thundering Herd grabbed a 7-point lead.  Then the Mountaineers went on a 23-2 run.  Game over.  West Virginia would lead by as much as 31 in the second half, cruising to an easy 94-71 victory.

All these upsets led to a lot of movement in the standings, so let's see how things have shaken out.  In the main pool, Scott Brown has grabbed a 3-point advantage.  He's got a couple of Jennifers on his tail.  Jen Shields holds down second place, while Jenn Nichols is one point behind her.  In the gamblers pool, Jim O'Connor also has a 3-point lead.  Scott is in second place there, while Jenn Nichols is one point out of third in that pool as well.

For complete standings, please click here.

March Madness 2018 - Day 3

The second round is typically where the Cinderellas find out that it's midnight and the true contenders  emerge.  Would that be the case again this year?  Here is your recap of Day 3 in chronological order:

• The first game of the day featured the team that has taken over the role of favorite after the surprising early departure of Virginia.  That team is Villanova.  They would be taking on a young but improving Alabama squad.  The Tide hung tough in the first half as the Wildcats had to play most of it without their star player, Jalen Brunson, who got into early foul trouble.  Villanova's lead was only 5 after 20 minutes, but they would break this game open right after the break with a barrage of three-pointers.  Jay Wright's team is headed to the sweet 16 after taking out Alabama by 23.
• There would be even less drama in the second game.  Duke didn't slow down from their 1st round track meet with Iona as they took on Rhode Island.  The Blue Devils put up 45 points in the first half and held a 17 point lead at intermission.  The Rams would not make Duke sweat at any point during the second half as the Blue Devils moved on with a 25-point rout.
• Did I mention track meets?  There was one going on in Boise, Idaho as both Kentucky and Buffalo declined their option to play defense, combining for 93 points before halftime.  The confident Bulls kept the game close for a long time, only trailing by 5 with 8 minutes to go.  But that is where their Cinderella story would end.  The Wildcats kept on scoring and Buffalo's shots stopped falling through the net.  The game was closer than the score would indicate, but Kentucky moves on after a 20-point victory.
• Three games down, three victories by the favored team of 20 or more points.  That wasn't March Madness.  What went down in game #4 was more of what we've grown accustomed to.  Loyola-Chicago hit a buzzer-beater to take out Miami in round 1.  It didn't look like they would need those dramatics against Tennessee as the Ramblers built a 10-point lead with 4 minutes to go.  But then they went full-blown stupid.  They stopped running their offense and tried to run off the last 4 minutes on the clock.  That pretty much never works.  Sure enough, the Volunteers would grab the lead with 21 seconds to go.  But Loyola-Chicago has 98-year-old Sister Jean on their side and she said God wanted them to win.  That might explain how the Ramblers got a shot to bounce on the rim several times and then fall through with less than 5 seconds remaining.  Tennessee had one last chance for the win and they got a good look at the buzzer, but their shot was not Sister Jean-endorsed.  Loyola-Chicago escapes again and moves on to the second weekend of play.
• Seton Hall was described as a bad matchup for top seed Kansas, especially if they were going to be playing again without their starting center, Udoka Azubuike.  That's because the Pirates were anchored by one of the best big men in America, double-double machine, Angel Delgado.    Azubuike would play, but he wouldn't be able to stop Delgado from having a huge game.  Delgado would score 24 points and grab 23 rebounds, a rare 20-20 in an NCAA tournament game.  It wouldn't be enough though.  The Jayhawks held a comfortable lead for most of the second half.  Like Bucknell on Friday, Seton Hall would hit some late three-pointers to make the score respectable, but they would also come up 4 points short.
• Don't you hate it when you're running 5 minutes late?  Ohio State knows how you feel.  They didn't show up for the first 5 minutes of their game against Gonzaga and dug themselves a 15-point deficit before they finally scored.  Maybe that made the Zags a bit complacent.  The Buckeyes came storming back, grabbing a 5-point lead with six minutes remaining in the game.  But the Zags showed their composure in the late stages, hitting several huge threes down the stretch to give them a six-point victory.
• If you've been going to bed early, you've been missing some incredible late games.  The last two on Saturday night were particularly good.  Florida and Texas Tech kept going back and forth at each other in a game filled with energy from start to finish.  Florida held the advantage for most of the first half, the Red Raiders stayed in front for most of the second half.  Texas Tech did most of their scoring with slashing drives and high-flying dunks, while the Gators tended to rely on the three-ball.  Florida was down three in the closing seconds and got two solid looks at a tying three-pointer, but their strength became a weakness when they needed it most.  The Red Raiders had to sweat it out until the final buzzer, but they will live to fight another day.
• I can't say that the final game of the evening was as much fun as that Florida-Texas Tech game. It was a slow, plodding affair between two very good teams, Houston and Michigan.  It would have a heck of an ending though!  Neither team could go on any sort of run and so the game remained tight throughout.  The Cougars had a two-point lead with less than 15 seconds to go, but Michigan had the ball and a chance to tie or take the lead.  They slashed to the basket and had an open layup, but it would not fall.  The Wolverines were able to tip the rebound back up and that looked good, but somehow that rattled out as well.  Houston grabbed the rebound with less than 4 seconds left and it looked like they could pack their bags for the regional in Los Angeles next weekend.  The shooter going to the line was 9-10 from the charity stripe on the evening.  If he makes both, the game is over.  If he makes 1, it still takes a miracle for overtime.  Houston missed the first.  Then the missed the second.  Michigan grabbed the rebound and called timeout.  Just 3 seconds to go the length of the court and score.  And that is when Houston violated just about every well-known principle when it comes to guarding an end-of-game situation.  Did Houston put anyone on the guy throwing the inbounds pass?  No!  Did they allow one of Michigan's guards to catch the inbounds pass at half-court without any pressure on him?  Yes!  That player caught the ball, took a dribble, and passed it to his teammate who (to be fair) was guarded very well by a Houston defender.  He threw up a desperation 30-foot shot that found the bottom of the net.  Michigan's miracle means they move on while Houston is left wondering what could have been.

On to the standings!  Luke McLoughlin has company at the top of the main pool as he is now tied with Jen Shields.  James Dematteo is two points further back in third.  In the gamblers pool, Jim O'Connor continues to stay just ahead of Luke, as he continues to be one point in front.  Nick Moreno is in a tie with James for 3rd, both of them two points behind Luke.

The complete standings can be found here.

March Madness 2018 - Day 2

The day started off with what seemed like a major surprise, but no one would be talking about that game by night's end.  If for some reason you weren't watching, you missed out on history.  Here's your recap for Day 2:

First set of games:

• On paper, the best game from the early action looked like the 7-10 matchup between Texas A&M and Providence.  For the first 25 minutes of action, it was a tight affair as neither team shot the ball all that well.  The Aggies starting showing signs of life with about 15 minutes left, opening up an 8-point lead.  The Friars showed in the Big East tournament that they wouldn't go down easily and they didn't here, finding a way to trim the lead down to 1 late in the second half.  That would be as close as they would get though.  Texas A&M held on to take this one, 73-69.
• The best game of the first quartet would end up being the Wichita State-Marshall battle.  The Shockers have been a mid-major darling for years, but they left the Missouri Valley Conference for a bigger conference this year.  That helped get them a higher seed, but it also forced a role reversal.  They went from being the hunter to the hunted.  Their opponent was a true mid-major, Marshall.  The Thundering Herd hung around during the first 20 minutes, only trailing by 3.  The two teams traded the lead for most of the second half, but Marshall proved the better team over the last 4 minutes.  The Shockers were...ummm...surprised by the #13 seed, falling 81-75.
• Very few people had Georgia State as a serious upset candidate, but the #15 seed led Cincinnati for the first 15 minutes of their tilt.  It looked like we might have a replay of Kansas-Penn from the day before when the Bearcats asserted control and opened up a lead after falling behind early, but Georgia State was feisty.  With less than 10 minutes to go, they went on a run that gave them a 1-point advantage.  Cincinnati would score 22 of the final 28 points though, sending home a valiant Panther squad.
• The last game of the initial four wasn't noteworthy for its competitiveness, but rather for a major injury.  Purdue won by 26, but the Boilermakers watched star 7-foot-2 center Isaac Haas fracture his elbow on a freak play.  They will have to play the rest of the tournament without him.

Second set of games:

• Only one good battle in the second set of games as Nevada and Texas might have been the most evenly matched teams of round one.  Things got tense late as the Longhorns held a 1-point lead in the final seconds.  Nevada drew a foul and had two free throws to take the lead with 3 seconds to go.  They missed the first, but made the second, tying the game.  Texas had one more chance to win it, but they threw a dangerous inbounds pass that resulted in a turnover.  Now the Wolfpack had a chance to win it, but their shot at the buzzer would not fall.  In overtime, Texas would grab an early 4-point lead, but Nevada stormed back with 8 consecutive points to build an advantage that would prove insurmountable.  The best Wolfpack in the tournament lives to play another day.
• Butler was the underdog in their matchup against Arkansas, but they didn't play that way, pummeling the Razorbacks by 17.
• West Virginia set up an intrastate battle with Marshall after thrashing Murray State by the same margin of 17.
• North Carolina would go one better, making Lipscomb's March Madness debut a short one in an 18-point victory.

Third set of games:

• Would this be the night that a 16-seed finally took down a 1-seed?  Texas Southern was trying to make the case that it was.  They didn't look like a 16-seed when they scored 16 straight against Xavier, a stretch that provided them with a 7-point lead.  The Musketeers would have an immediate response though.  They went on a 21-2 run and never looked back after that, eclipsing the century mark in a 102-83 victory.
• Bucknell at least made the box score look good by the end of their game.  The Bison trailed Michigan State by 18 with 4 minutes left, but they refused to let the Spartans run out the clock. They kept fouling and fouling, trading 1-2 free throws for three-pointers at the other end.  Give Bucknell credit: they did their part, knocking down 6 triples, including 4 in the final minute.  But it was too little, too late.  Michigan State was never in danger of losing, "only" winning by 4.
• If there was a defensive doppelgänger to yesterday's Seton Hall-NC State game, it would have been the 8-9 matchup between Creighton and Kansas State.  Kansas State got out to an early lead and the Bluejays never really put together any sort of comeback over the course of the game.  This was despite the fact that the Wildcats were playing without their top scorer.  69 points was more than enough for Kansas State to move on with a 10-point victory.
• There had never been a tournament where three 13-seeds had pulled off upsets in round one, but in the final game of the early evening set, the Cougars of Charleston were in position to join Buffalo and Marshall in the round of 32.  They were tied with regular season SEC champ Auburn at the break and the two teams were still deadlocked with 2 minutes to go.  Auburn hit a three to take the lead, but gave Charleston a bunch of chances from the line to make up the deficit.  Poor shooting from the charity stripe doomed the Cougars though.  They had one last chance at a tie and appeared to get screwed when the ref swallowed his whistle during a three-point attempt where the Charleston player appeared to get fouled.  But let's be honest: he was gonna miss the free throws anyway.  Auburn moves on with a 4-point win.

Final set of games:

• Syracuse is good at one thing and one thing only: playing zone.  How do you attack the zone?  Not the way TCU did.  The commentators kept talking about how TCU coach Jamie Dixon had  success against Syracuse when he coached Pitt, but he must have lost his notes or something.  The Horned Frogs were all too willing to chuck up a bunch of difficult shots and never made the Orange's zone collapse.  (For God's sake, put a man at the free throw line already!).  As a result, Syracuse lives another day, beating TCU by 5.
• Florida State led by 22 at halftime and never looked back in their demolition of Missouri.
• Clemson also built a large halftime lead in their game against New Mexico State and were never seriously threatened in their 11-point win over the Aggies.
• That meant the ACC was going to sweep all four of the games to end the evening.  Because there was no way Virginia, the #1 overall seed, was going to lose to UMBC.  UMBC had lost to Albany by 44 two months ago.  They needed a buzzer-beating three-pointer to upset Vermont and make the tournament.  Virginia had been a defensive force all year long, holding the elite teams in the country to an average of 53 points per game.  This might not be a sexy matchup, but the Cavaliers were not expected to sweat much.  They were 20-point favorites.  Even when the first half ended tied at 21, it was hard to imagine that UMBC would hang in there for 20 more minutes.  Penn and Texas Southern had early leads against #1 seeds, so seeing a 16-seed play tough in the first half was not uncommon.  What happened in the second half would shock the world.  It wasn't a complete surprise that Virginia would put up paltry numbers on offense.  What was baffling was how easy the Retrievers were scoring against the best defense in the nation.  Over and over again, they would drain threes or slice to the hoop for a layup.  UMBC was en fuego.  The lead grew to 12.  Then 15.  Four minutes to go and UMBC led by 17.  Was this really happening?  The look on the Cavaliers face let you know there would be no comeback.  There wasn't even any fouling in the last few minutes in a desperate attempt to close the gap.  A 16-seed had finally done the impossible and they did it in a rout.  UMBC cracked brackets across the country with a resounding 20-point victory.

If you've never believed that anyone could win in this tournament, you better believe it now.

On to the standings!  In the main pool, Luke McLoughlin has taken a one-point lead over John Falco, with Vince Berarducci, Debra Peerenboom, and reigning champ Will Peerenboom another three points behind John in 3rd.  In the gamblers pool, Jim O'Connor holds a one-point lead on Luke, with Vince in 3rd there as well.

The full standings can be found here.

March Madness 2018 - Day 1

I finally have all of the brackets transferred into my spreadsheet!  And that means I can hit you up with a quick recap of Day 1 before giving you the information you really want (the standings).

First set of games:

• The Madness got underway with a very compelling game.  Trae Young was the early shoo-in for Player of the Year, but then his hot hand cooled off and Oklahoma faded badly down the stretch.  They were a controversial at-large bid, but they could silence the critics with a win over Rhode Island to lead off the tournament.  It was be a nail biter that would require overtime, but in the end, the Rams would show the door to Young and the Sooners.  
• Gonzaga and UNC Greensboro also played a tight game, but that was because of some atrocious 3-point shooting by both squads.  The two teams combined to go 8 for 45 from downtown.  However, Gonzaga's Zach Norvell Jr. hit one with 21 seconds left to give the Zags a lead they would not relinquish.
• Kansas had the equivalent of a home game against 16-seed Penn.  Easy blowout, right?  Not quite.  The Quakers had a 21-11 with 8 minutes left in the first half and you had to wonder whether we'd finally witness a 1-seed lose in the first round.  We wouldn't.  Kansas would turn that 10-point deficit into a 7-point halftime lead before winning by 16.
• In the least interesting game of the first wave, Tennessee absolutely smothered Wright State in a 26-point stomping.

Second set of games:

• No upsets or buzzer beaters in that initial set of games, but we got our first surefire "One Shining Moment" clip thanks to the ending of Miami vs Loyola-Chicago.  Miami was clinging to a 1-point advantage in the waning seconds when the ball was thrown to the Ramblers' Donte Ingram at the top of the key.  He fired a long 3-pointer that would hit nothing but the bottom of the net.  Chaos ensued and Miami would find itself the first upset victim of this year's tournament in a 64-62 loss.
• South Dakota State was a popular upset selection as they took on Ohio State.  The Jackrabbits were tied with the Buckeyes at the half, but Ohio State led most of the final 20 minutes.  South Dakota State found one last surge to tie the game with less than two minutes to go, but they bizarrely fouled a three-point shooter not once but twice after that late rally.  One of those fouls led to a four-point play, the other to three free throws and suddenly the Buckeyes had a comfortable 7-point cushion again.  No upset here as Ohio State moves on.
• Duke and Iona figured to be involved in a track meet and they did not disappoint in the first half, combining for 92 points.  Things calmed down in the second half, but by then, the outcome was no longer in doubt.  Duke would cruise to a 22-point victory.
• My beloved Wolfpack would close out the afternoon slate and they were supremely disappointing for the second straight game.  After a really promising season that exceeded all expectations, they laid an egg in the ACC tournament against Boston College.  Their effort was non-existent again vs Seton Hall.  At no point did the Wolfpack lead in the game.  Every time they closed the gap to 3-4 points, they would make a terrible play that gave momentum back to the Pirates.  The gas tank clearly hit empty in early March.  Seton Hall moves on to a second round matchup with Kansas.

Third set of games:

• The most frantic finish of the night would take place in the Houston - San Diego State game.  Both teams came into the game hot having played some of their best basketball at the end of the season.  And their battle would not disappoint.  Houston led by 3 late when the Aztecs hit a 3 to tie the game.  The Cougars went right down the court and hit a trey to re-establish their 3-point lead.  San Diego State matched them again on their next possession down the court.  With about 30 seconds remaining, Houston could run down the clock for a final shot.  They put the ball in the hands of their superstar, Rob Gray.  He knifed through 3 defenders and laid in the go-ahead layup with 1 second remaining.  The Aztecs looked finished, but a full court pass found its mark and they had an open shot at a winning 3 to win it.  The desperation shot would not fall though and Houston moved on.
• Stephen F Austin was looking for a huge upset as a 14-seed in their intrastate battle with Texas Tech.  They led at halftime and made a huge defensive stop while clinging to a 1-point lead with 3 minutes left.  But as they were bringing the ball up the court, they dribbled the ball away.  That was the momentum swing the Red Raiders needed, as they would grab the lead after that turnover and not look back in a 10-point victory.
• Davidson was another candidate for the trendy 12 vs 5 upset in their matchup against Kentucky.  They struggled in the first half, digging themselves a 10-point hole, but they showed signs of life in the second half, making it a 2-point game with three minutes left.  They couldn't quite get over the hump though, as Kentucky would keep their opponents at bay, advancing on to round 2.
• The final score said Villanova only won by 26, but I'm pretty sure they put in the second string about 8 minutes into the game.  This one got out of hand early.  Nice First Four win for Radford, but Nova was way out of their league.

Fourth set of games:

• The biggest shocker of the day came in the late set of games and it wasn't your garden variety upset.  Usually when a 13-seed takes down a 4-seed, it comes down to a buzzer beater or the underdog just hangs around all game long and pulls it out at the end.  That was not the case in the Buffalo-Arizona matchup.  At halftime, the Bulls led by 2, but their coach wasn't satisfied.  During the halftime interview, he told the world his team wasn't the underdog.  He claimed that his team was better than Arizona and that they should have been up 10.  His squad backed up his boasting in the second half.  They wouldn't just build a 10-point lead.  They would blow this thing open, taking down the Pac-12 champs by 21.
• Could Collin Sexton really be this year's Kemba Walker?  It's a storyline that's picking up steam.  The freshman guard from Alabama led the team to a strong run in the SEC tournament which helped secure an at-large bid for the Tide.  Then he made a bunch of big plays in crunch time vs Virginia Tech in a tightly contested 8-9 battle.  The kid just seems to know how to win, proving it again by leading the Tide to a gritty 3-point win over the Hokies.
• St. Bonaventure didn't get strong contributions from a couple of their stars in their First Four win over UCLA.  They would need to turn it around to upset Florida in a 6-11 matchup.  Unfortunately for the Bonnies, they couldn't pull it together.  The offense was missing for the second straight game and the Gators ran away to an easy 15-point victory.
• Grizzlies and Wolverines both seem like vicious predators, so the last matchup of the night figured to be a slobberknocker.  Montana had the best of it early on, scoring the first 10 points of the game.  It was all downhill from there.  Michigan dominated the rest of the way, holding the Grizzlies to just 37 more points in a 61-47 win.

On to the pools!  We have 35 entries in the main pool (there is a blank entry which accidentally came through) and 23 entries in the gamblers pool.  Leading the main pool after Day 1 is Scott Brown, whose strong bracket was accidentally locked out of last year's pool.  One point behind him are both Luke McLoughlin and Alex Peerenboom.  In the gamblers pool, Jim O'Connor has the early lead, with Chubbs Leduc two points behind him.  Luke McLoughlin and John Falco are another point back.

To see the entire standings (and the entire spreadsheet), click here.