March Madness 2021 - Just The Way He Drew It Up

It's pretty rare that we get the best two teams in the national championship.  The tournament is called March Madness for a reason.  It's just not easy to navigate 5 rounds (or 6 rounds if you're UCLA) of single elimination to get to the final game.  But with all the twists and turns in this year's edition, we still managed to get the matchup everyone was eager to see.  Baylor and Gonzaga were supposed to play earlier in the year, back when they were both unbeaten.  Some covid positives in the Baylor program forced the game to be cancelled and it looked like we wouldn't get to see these two titans battle.  But the fates were kind and rather than see those teams face each other in a somewhat meaningless game in December, we got to witness it on the grandest stage of them all.  Bears.  Bulldogs.  Battlestar Galactica.  Basketball immortality.

One way or another, a program was about to get its first national title, as neither of these teams had ever won the championship before.  And for Gonzaga, the stakes were even higher.  Indiana back in 1976 was the last team to run the entire gauntlet undefeated.  The last team to make it this far was Indiana State back in 1979, but they were the underdogs vs Magic's Michigan State Spartans.  The Zags were the favorites in this matchup.  However, they were going to have to dig into the reserves to beat Baylor.  The national semifinal against UCLA was a Rocky-like slugfest.  Could they come back two nights later and maintain their high octane level of play?

The analysts on TV will tell you that Gonzaga looked flat early, but I disagree.  I think Baylor came out with a strong game plan that put the Zags into a situation they weren't used to.  Here's how the game started and see if you notice any trends:

• Baylor wins tip.  Misses jumper.  Gets offensive rebound.  Misses jumper.  Gets offensive rebound.  Makes jumper.
• Gonzaga misses a three pointer.
• Baylor misses jumper.  Gets offensive rebound.  Makes layup.
• Gonzaga turnover.
• Baylor makes a three pointer.
• Gonzaga misses a three pointer.  Gets offensive rebound.  Turns ball over.
• Baylor makes layup.

Add that all up and it was 9-0 Baylor very quickly.  As this game would go on, the analysts would talk about a weary Gonzaga team and how they couldn't make stops.  But to me, that really wasn't the case.  What I saw was:

• Baylor dominating on the boards.  It wasn't like the Bears came out with a hot hand or that the Zags were playing bad defense.  But Baylor kept getting offensive rebounds and it was too hard for Gonzaga to make multiple stops.
• Baylor was taking Drew Timme out of Gonzaga's offense.  The Zags couldn't get the ball to Timme, so they settled for three pointers early on, which they were not hitting.
• Baylor refused to drive 65.  I mentioned Charles Barkley's comment about Gonzaga only playing at 65 mph and being the best at it.  But Baylor's aggressiveness and speed on defense, especially in the first few minutes when they jumped out to a big lead, caused the Zags to have to play faster.  And when they played faster, they made mistakes.  There would be a lot of Gonzaga turnovers in this game where players tried to drive to the hoop faster than they were accustomed to and lost control of their dribble.

Would a fresh Gonzaga team be able to play at that faster speed?  Maybe.  But it seemed like Baylor had the perfect game plan in place.  The Zags were thrown off and panic mode set in quickly.  Jalen Suggs picked up his 2nd team foul before the first TV timeout, so they would have to play without their team leader for most of the first half.  The lead would balloon to 29-10.  Gonzaga was the top scoring team in the nation, but it sure seemed like they would need everything to go right the rest of the way to even have a chance of completing an improbably comeback against this Baylor squad.

To Gonzaga's credit, they would begin to figure it out as the first half wore on.  They had more success on the defensive end by switching from man-to-man to a zone.  They got Timme into the offensive flow eventually.  And after only scoring 10 points in the first 10 minutes, they scored 27 points over the next 10 minutes.  Their deficit at halftime was a mere 10 points, Suggs had managed to stay away from foul #3, and despite an ugly start, the undefeated season was still a possibility.

Unfortunately for Gonzaga, the second half started out eerily similar to the first half.  Baylor had the ball first again and that possession went: Missed three, offensive rebound, missed layup, offensive rebound, made three.  After a Gonzaga layup, the Bears came down and knocked down another trey.  The lead was 14 again.  Gonzaga would whittle it down to 9 at one point during the second half, but less than two minutes later, Baylor would put the final nail in the coffin.  With the lead back up to 13, Corey Kispert drove to the hoop and had his layup swatted away.  On the other end, the Bears had numbers.  After some crisp ball movement, they found an open shooter behind the arc.  As the ball was in the air, you could hear someone from Baylor yell "Yup" and sure enough, the ball found nothing but net.  The lead was 16, there was only 12 minutes to play and Baylor had crushed every small run Gonzaga had made to get back into the game.

I used to watch NFL Primetime on ESPN after the games on Sunday afternoon were over and every year, when the last undefeated team was handed their first loss, Chris Berman, Tom Jackson, and company would talk about how the 1972 Dolphins would pop the champagne again as the last undefeated champ.  They would even play a sound effect of a champagne cork popping.  As Baylor hit that three to extend the lead back to 16, I imagined hearing the 1976 Hoosiers popping their champagne, knowing it would be at least another year before someone could take their throne as the last undefeated champ.  (Of course, since this entire tournament took place in Indiana, it's possible that the 1976 Hoosiers were in the arena popping bottles and that's what I was hearing.  Ya never know.)

There was no drama over the last 12 minutes as Gonzaga would get no closer than 13 points.  With the blowout in place, CBS was desperate for filler as the minutes ticked down.  I'm sure they had a ton of stuff ready in case Gonzaga had been way ahead, but it felt like they weren't as ready for a Baylor blowout.  They decided to air coach Scott Drew's press conference from back when he got the Baylor job in 2003.  The program was in shambles, but he promised that he would get them back to the NCAA tournament.  And then he followed it up by saying that they weren't just going to get there, they were going to win games when they got there.  Well Coach Drew, your team won 6 of those games this year.  And that makes the Baylor Bears your national champion.  They handed the Zags their only defeat of the season, by a final score of 86-70.

One last look at the Magic Spreadsheet:

Magic Spreadsheet

Aiden and Scott B are your two champs.  Tiny is your double runner-up.  And Scott B and Dave H claim the final spots on the respective podiums.

That's it folks.  It was Madness as advertised: a 15 seed nearly making it to the Elite Eight, an 11 seed almost getting to the title game in one of the best college basketball games of all time, a final between the top two ranked teams in the country, and an undefeated team coming up one step short of glory.  I hope you enjoyed this tournament as much as I did.  I hope you watched One Shining Moment.  And I hope we're back to normal this time next year.  Take care everyone!

March Madness 2021 - And Here's To You, Adam Morrison

The National Semifinals played out just like everyone imagined: one hard fought battle and one complete snoozer.  Ok, maybe the Final Four flipped the script on us a little bit.  If you didn't tune in on Saturday night, you missed a doozy.  The national championship on Monday night has a tough act to follow.  But before we get to the Final Four recap, let's take a gander at the Magic Spreadsheet!

Magic Spreadsheet

Not much drama remaining in this year's pools.  In the Main Pool, Aiden was our champ this year, with Tiny taking the runner-up spot, and Scott B finishing in 3rd.  Some tweaks to that Main Pool bracket helped Scott finish two spots higher in the Gamblers Pool.  He is the champ of this year's edition, while Tiny got his second silver medal by coming in 2nd in this pool as well.  The only position that is still up for grabs is third.  Chubbs needs a Baylor victory and a total score less than 136 points to steal 3rd, while any other scenario will give the bronze to Dave H.

A Baylor victory in the national championship?  Yes, putting the Magic Spreadsheet at the top of the blog means spoilers galore.  (As does procrastination and putting this out two days after the game has ended.).  The Baylor-Houston game was supposed to be the tight affair among the two national semifinals as it featured two top 10 teams with contrasting styles.  Baylor was known for their strong guard play on the offensive end.  The Bears could score in bunches based on their proficient three-point shooting.  Their opponent was known for having one of the best defensive squads in the nation.  Houston had held their opponents to less than 56 points per game during the first four rounds of the tournament.  But they also were somewhat fortunate in how their bracket played out.  Their path to the Final Four consisted of playing the #15 seed, the #10 seed, the #11 seed, and the #12 seed, making them the first team ever to win their region without playing a single-digit seed.  Facing Baylor was a steep upgrade in competition and it showed very early in this one.  The surprise was that it was the Bears defense which dominated during the opening 20 minutes.  Houston only had one guy who seemed able to score and that was Marcus Sasser.  I'm sure that if you told the Cougars before the game that Sasser would score 17 in the first half, they would have assumed that they were well ahead of Baylor at intermission.  But Sasser's teammates only managed 3 points during those 20 minutes.  The Bears, meanwhile, were on fire from beyond the arc.  By the time the dust settled on half #1, Baylor led by 25.  The second half was nothing more than a victory lap for the Bears as Houston couldn't get any closer than 17.  Baylor will play for the national championship after a 78-59 victory over Houston.

The other national semifinal was the one that figured to be the mismatch.  Undefeated Gonzaga came into the game averaging over 90 points per contest.  UCLA had only scored 51 in their Elite Eight victory over Michigan.  The Bruins were going to have come up with some Houston-like defense (pre-Baylor) or they were going to have shoot the lights out to have a chance in this one.  And given that they had already played 5 games in this tournament, including 2 overtime games, it seemed really unlikely that UCLA could give the Zags a game.  Oh how wrong that analysis was!

There was plenty of offense in the first half as Gonzaga scored at their typical pace.  But they found themselves trailing for most of the opening 20 minutes as UCLA was hitting nearly everything.  Forget only scoring 51 points against Michigan.  The Bruins almost matched that mark by halftime in this one.  Still, despite holding the lead most of the way, UCLA found themselves trailing at the half when Gonzaga hit a last-second shot to take a 45-44 lead.  It was a really impressive showing from the Bruins, but it had to make you wonder whether we were seeing what we saw in Gonzaga's round two game vs. Oklahoma.  The Sooners came out blazing hot in that one, holding the lead for most of the first half.  But eventually they couldn't keep pace with the Zags offense and Gonzaga pulled away to a comfortable victory.  How much more could UCLA possibly have in the tank.  The answer?  Plenty.

The Bruins were led by Johnny Juzang, who has been the most impressive player in this year's tournament.  Whenever UCLA really needed a bucket, Juzang would get it for them.  But this wasn't a case of a star player carrying the underdog team, a la Steph Curry back in his Davidson days.  Cody Riley was banging bodies in the paint with Gonzaga's Drew Timme, getting offensive rebounds and hitting the occasional mid-range jumper.  Tyger Campbell was running the offense for the Bruins, driving into the lane, hitting shots, and getting some of the Zags into foul trouble.  And when Juzang was denied the ball on the offensive end, UCLA turned to Jaime Jaquez Jr. to hit some key shots.  The Bruins seemed to be thriving on the "next man up" philosophy.  Whenever someone was called on to make a big play, they made it.  In most Gonzaga games this season, there was this feeling of inevitability that the Zags were going to win.  As the second half wore on, it felt like it was inevitable that the Bruins were about to end Gonzaga's undefeated season.

If it sounds like there is no way that Gonzaga should have been keeping pace based on how well UCLA's offense was working, then you haven't seen the Zags play this year.  You need a tremendous offense to score over 90 points per game.  Much like the Bruins, the Zags were getting contributions from everyone.  Drew Timme has been their best player in this tournament and he was a key to their offense yet again.  Jalen Suggs was doing his part to create off the dribble.  Joel Ayayi came out hot and did most of the scoring for the Zags in the first half.  Corey Kispert basically played the role of Jaime Jaquez Jr. for Gonzaga, hitting clutch buckets when the other offensive threats were defended well.  And even though Gonzaga unexpectedly missed some layups and free throws during the course of this game, they still managed to hold a 7 point lead midway through the second half.  But that lead evaporated quickly and the game became a one-possession affair all the way down to the final buzzer.  Making things more ominous for the Zags was foul trouble.  In particular, Timme had picked up his 4th foul with almost 5 minutes left in the game.  Could Gonzaga's offense keep up with UCLA (wow, feels weird typing that) if Timme fouled out?

Turns out they wouldn't have to answer that question.  UCLA oddly decided not to test Timme much on the defensive end by feeding the ball to Riley.  Instead they relied on the hot hand of Johnny Juzang.  But there was a key play involving Riley that made the highlight reel.  He had slipped free when Timme left him to double team a UCLA player.  Riley got the ball and looked like he had an easy dunk.  But Suggs came out of nowhere to get a finger on the ball as Riley headed to the rim.  The dunk missed its mark and Suggs tracked down the ball.  He then fired a full court bounce pass to a streaking Timme for a dunk on the other end.  The Zags were back on top.  Until Juzang made yet another jumper.  The game was still tied as UCLA came down the court for the last possession.  Juzang was not giving up the ball.  As the seconds ticked down, he drove past two defenders and elevated in the lane.  Before Juzang had even gotten to the free throw line, Timme had set up shop ready for a charge.  The last seconds ticked off the clock as Juzang released a floater and collided into Timme.  I was expecting the refs to let the teams play, but suddenly there was a whistle.  Would the call go against Timme, knocking him out of the game and giving Juzang two shots from the free throw line for the win with less than a second to go?  No!  The refs called a charge on Juzang.  The game was headed to overtime.

(I should note that I had alternated between sitting and standing while watching this game, but for the last 6-7 minutes of regulation and overtime, it was nothing but standing and pacing.)

We headed to OT and Timme's foul trouble still seemed to be the guillotine hanging precariously over the Zags head.  Could he make it 5 more minutes without fouling out?  Seemed like only a matter of time before he got his 5th foul if he was going to make defensive plays like he did at the end of regulation.  But the Zags didn't seem concerned that his 5th foul might come on the offensive end.  They fed Timme the ball for the first 3 possessions of overtime and he scored on all of them.  UCLA kept switching on screens and the Zags were taking advantage.  After a timeout, Gonzaga tried to play it safe with Timme by sitting him on the bench for a possession, trying to get him back in for offense later on.  But that strategy seemed to backfire as the Zags offense would not be as sharp for the remainder of overtime.  There were some head scratching plays for UCLA as well, with Juzang not touching the ball on offense for most of the extra period.  Both teams strayed from the guys who got them here.

Gonzaga would hold a 5 point cushion, 90-85, with less than a minute left in overtime.  For some reason, I was still convinced the Bruins were going to win.  The score 91-90 flashed through my mind.  And when Jaquez Jr. hit a contested three to trim the lead back down to 2, that feeling grew even stronger.  As had been the case in regulation, the Zags went to Corey Kispert for their final offensive possession and once again he was off the mark.  Deja vu.  UCLA grabbed the rebound and got the ball to Juzang.  Deja vu.  Would the variation be a three here to end it?  No, instead Juzang pulled up for a contested jumper that missed.  But he grabbed the rebound and laid it back in.  90-90.  Three seconds left.  We were headed to a second overtime.  Or were we?  Rather than call a timeout, the Zags inbounded the ball to Suggs immediately.  He had enough time to dribble just past halfcourt.  He rose up and shot the ball before the buzzer.  And it banked into the basket.  I was in complete shock.  It almost felt like UCLA should get another possession to tie it and send it to double overtime.  But the clock read zero, Gonzaga had escaped, and the dream of being the first undefeated champion in 45 years lived on.  Somewhere Adam Morrison was smiling...

...and that somewhere was courtside.  Morrison was the star player on the Zags back in 2006 when they were still truly a Cinderella.  It looked like they were headed to the Elite Eight as they held a lead late against (you guessed it) UCLA.  But the Zags blew it down the stretch and when the Bruins got a hold of a loose ball with a 1 point lead and only seconds remaining, Morrison was reduced to tears while laying face down on the court.  UCLA broke Gonzaga's hearts 15 years ago and now Jalen Suggs had returned the favor in the 2021 Final Four.  The Zags will meet Baylor after narrowly beating UCLA 93-90 in overtime.  It was one of the best college basketball games ever.  And UCLA provided one of the gutsiest runs in the tournament ever, playing 6 games, 3 of them going to overtime, only being eliminated when the undefeated #1 team in the nation banked in a shot from half court.  Hats off to this UCLA squad!

While the Bruins were amazing in this year's tournament, their loss means we get the game we were all hoping for.  Earlier in the season, when both Baylor and Gonzaga were undefeated, it was the matchup every college basketball fan had circled on their calendar.  Covid didn't cancel that game, it merely delayed it.  Monday night, with the national championship on the line, the two top teams in the country will find out who truly is the best.

Make sure you tune in.  And don't forget to stay for One Shining Moment!

March Madness 2021 - USC Can't Drive 65

It's been a busy week, so even though I started writing this blog post on Wednesday, it's not getting finished until shortly before the Final Four begins.  One change in today's blog: the Magic Spreadsheet moves from the top of the post to the bottom.  We have a winner in one of the pools and the other one is all but decided, so we'll leave the congratulations until the end.

The West region was up first on Tuesday night and it was time to see how powerful the PAC-12 juggernaut truly was.  USC had crushed their first three opponents in this year's tourney, but so had Gonzaga.  In fact, the Zags had been doing it all season long.  The analysts on TV certainly seemed to believe that USC was a formidable foe for Gonzaga and not the team that needed two overtimes to beat Utah in the PAC-12 quarterfinals just a couple of weeks ago.  To put it nicely, the Trojans did not get off to a good start in this one.  They turned the ball over a few times, allowing Gonzaga a quick 7-0 lead and once again, a Gonzaga game felt like it was over really early on.  USC came into the game as one of the top defensive units in the country, leading the nation in blocks.  They would record zero blocks in this game.  They only managed 1 turnover in the first half, while giving up 49 points to the Zags as USC headed to the locker room down by 19 after 20 minutes of play.  There was no drama in the second half as Gonzaga seems to know how to hold on to a cushion without expending too much energy.  Sir Charles probably put it best after the game when he said the following (paraphrased): "Gonzaga doesn't play at 100 mph.  They play at 65 mph.  They keep the game at that speed and they know no one can beat them at that speed."  It's true.  The Zags never seem to be stressed while they play the game.  They go about their business and dominate.  It's methodical and ruthless.  And it was good enough to earn them a trip to the Final Four.  The West region champs remain undefeated after dismantling USC by a score of 85-66.

Hope you got your offensive fix in the first regional final because baskets were hard to come by in the East region final.  It was a matchup of the two conferences that had been talked about the most in this year's tournament.  Michigan was representing the Big 12, the best conference in the country during the regular season, but a huge disappointment during March Madness.  They were taking on UCLA from the PAC-12, a conference that didn't get a lot of love during the regular season, but showed how good they were when it counted by getting 4 teams into the Sweet 16 and 3 into the Elite 8.  Oregon State had fallen short vs Houston and USC had just gotten bounced by Gonzaga, so it was up to the Bruins if the PAC-12's run was going to continue.  10 minutes into this one it was 11-4 Michigan and, after watching the Gonzaga game, it was hard to imagine how either of these teams was going to be able to keep up with the Zags in the national semifinals if they survived this game.  UCLA was able to develop a bit of offense as the half wore on and the Bruins led by 4 at the break.  They would extend that lead to 9 early in the second half and it appeared the Wolverines were in deep trouble, but then UCLA went cold.  Like "the mountains have turned blue" cold.  For the next 7 minutes, the Bruins didn't score.  That allowed Michigan back into the game, but they could only muster a mild run while UCLA went scoreless.  It would be a one possession game throughout the final minutes, mainly because neither team could score.  The Bruins went ahead 48-47 with 4 minutes to play and then no one scored for another 3 minutes.  Yikes.  Both teams added two points to their totals in the final minute, but Michigan would have the last chance to win.  And the chance after that.  And one more still.  Down by 1, Franz Wagner airballed an open three from the top of the key.  After UCLA hit a free throw to make it a two-point game, the Bruins exhibited some dicey last-second defense for the second straight game, allowing Michigan an open look for the win that did not drop.  The ball was knocked out of bounds with less than a second to go, but the Wolverines got possession.  Surely they wouldn't get another open look, right?  Wrong.  Wagner got about as good a chance as you can get on a catch and shoot 3 and it didn't miss by much, but it missed by enough.  UCLA has gone from the First Four to the Final Four.  It feels like they might have stolen Abilene Christian's magic as they've needed miracles to win the last two games.  Alabama couldn't hit a free throw and Michigan couldn't hit open threes.  They will probably need Gonzaga to miss the exit ramp to the arena to get to the national championship game, but hey, they've made it this far, so you've got to give credit where credit is due.  UCLA is your East region champ after an ugly 51-49 victory.

Magic Spreadsheet update: The Main Pool has not been decided yet, but Aiden is the overwhelming favorite at this point.  Nate S can still win if Houston defeats UCLA in the national championship game.  But any other outcome will give Aiden the win.  As for the Gamblers Pool, it was starting to look dire for Scott B, but he can thank UCLA for clinching the 2021 title for him.  Tiny needed Michigan to beat UCLA and Baylor to beat Houston to jump over Scott in the standings and he was certainly favored to do so, but the Wolverines came up short.  Chubbs was further down the standings, but he had Gonzaga losing to Michigan in the Final Four with Baylor as his overall champion, so he had ample room to make up ground late.  But the Wolverines loss left him with too much to do in the final weekend.  So congrats to Scott B, the 2021 Gamblers Pool champ!

Magic Spreadsheet

Time for the Final Four!  Can Houston cool down Baylor's explosive offense?  Does UCLA have any more miracles up their sleeves?  Will we get the covid-delayed dream matchup of Baylor-Gonzaga in the national championship?  And can Gonzaga cap off an undefeated season, something that hasn't been done in 45 years?  Tune in now!