Saturday, March 25, 2023

March Madness 2023 - Few and Drew Got Nothing Left To Do

You're definitely going to read this recap, right?  It's only two games!  Fine, fine...for those only interested in the spreadsheet, you can find it here.

But if you're ready to find out which two teams punched their tickets to the Final Four, you're in for a treat.  It's gonna be a pretty short read.  Of the two games, most people were interested in the later game, figuring that the early game would not be that interesting.  However, 2023 is March Madness on steroids.  Better to expect the unexpected.  And as a result, we had a great opener and a snoozer of a closer.

Kansas State has been a surprise all season.  Florida Atlantic is a school that most casual college basketball viewers aren't familiar with, but they've been in the Top 25 rankings this year.  They were the last two standing in a region that included Purdue, Marquette, Tennessee, Duke, Kentucky, and Michigan State.  The "name" schools had their chance to cut down the nets in Madison Square Garden, but they were knocked out one by one.  So now it came down to the Wildcats and the Owls to decide who would get the first golden ticket to Houston.  These teams were evenly matched and it showed throughout this one.  The star of this tournament has been Kansas State guard Markquis Nowell, but Florida Atlantic also had a "little guy" in Johnell Davis who had been essential in getting the Owls to the Elite Eight.  Both teams liked to get up and down the court.  And both teams had a big guy who they relied on to make plays from time to time.

In the first half, neither team could build a big advantage.  Florida Atlantic held the lead for most of the first 20 minutes, but Kansas State kept things close.  And this wasn't one of those low-scoring slugfests.  Each team was lighting it up on the offensive end.  Kansas State would get one last layup before the half to cut the Owls lead down to 4.  If the second half lived up to what we saw in the first 20 minutes, we were in for an exciting finish.  With Nowell feeling unstoppable and Kansas State being the team from a major conference, there was a sense that if the Wildcats went on a run, then Florida Atlantic could be in some trouble.  That run came early in the second half, as Kansas State came out of the break on a 19-8 run to go up by seven.  How would the Owls respond?  Well, a big part of that run was due to Florida Atlantic starting to misfire on the offensive end.  They just needed to see the ball go through the hoop a couple of times to get back into rhythm.  Those 8 points I mentioned came over the course of the opening 8 minutes of the second half.  With the perimeter game on fumes, the Owls decided to get their big guy involved to turn the tide.  And center Vladislav Goldin came through for them.  He'd score 6 points for them over a stretch that saw them come back and regain the lead.  Now it was the Wildcats who had gone cold.  Nowell was still filling up the stat sheet, but his balanced attack from the win over Michigan State (20 points, 19 assists) had been changed in this game as he was first and foremost a scorer in this one.  And once it became clear that he'd be the primary offense, Nowell started forcing up some shots, just as he had done late in the game against the Spartans.  A 63-57 lead for Kansas State had now become a 67-63 deficit with only 4 minutes left to play.

The fireworks would pick up again down the stretch.  FAU's Alijah Martin (infamous for his missed dunk at the buzzer against FDU) drained a three and then hit two free throws on the next possession to put the Owls up eight.  Kansas State countered with two free throws from sharpshooter Ismael Massoud, followed by a long three from Nowell to cut the margin back to three again.  Johnell Davis hadn't been heard from in a while, but a driving layup made the lead 5 again.  Nowell would get fouled on the other end and calmly drained two free throws to get it back to a 3 point deficit with about a minute to play.  Martin would try for the dagger three, but that was no good.  Nowell tried to trim the lead to 1, but his layup wouldn't fall.  It was now time for Kansas State to foul.  The Owls could only make one of two to bring the lead to 4 temporarily, as the Wildcats raced down and drained a three to make it a one-point game again with 24 seconds to go.  Another foul put FAU on the line and Michael Forrest made both free throws.  Kansas State decided not to go for three, taking an easy layup to make it a one point game with 8 seconds to go.  The Owls were able to run 2 seconds off the clock again before Forrest was sent back to the free throw line.  He had ice in his veins, as he swished two more no doubters.  At this point, it seemed likely that Florida Atlantic would foul rather than let Nowell make yet another magical play in this tournament, but they surprisingly did not.  Several players met him as he came across with midcourt with the ball, but no one fouled.  Then Nowell did the unexpected: he passed the ball.  With only 2 seconds on the clock, he threw it to Massoud, who would get doubled immediately and then have the ball stripped away.  That was it.  The run of Jerome Tang and Markquis Nowell was over, while Florida Atlantic heads to their first ever Final Four, clinching the East region with a 79-76 triumph.

A couple of notes about these two teams.  To those who say that this tournament isn't as good as previous ones because Florida Atlantic has made it this far, I would say go watch another sport.  No one had a problem with #8 seed North Carolina getting to the title game last year, or #11 seed UCLA going from the First Four to the Final Four two years ago.  It's not crazy that a #9 seed has made it this far.  And this Florida Atlantic team has won 35 games this year.  They aren't a fluke on any level.  As for Kansas State, Markquis Nowell put up one of the all-time great performances in this tournament.  Even in this loss, he put up 30 points and 12 assists, making him one of only a handful of players to put up 30+ points and 10+ assists in a tournament game, just 48 hours after setting an NCAA record for assists in a tournament game.  As for first-year head coach Jerome Tang, he has a bright future.  He took a team expected to finish last in the Big 12 to the doorstep of the Final Four.  He also had enough class to go to the Florida Atlantic locker room after the game to congratulate them on their win and let them know that they were the toughest team they had played this year.  The Kansas State Wildcats are in good hands.

Game two featured at least two of the three title favorites once the field had been trimmed down to the Elite Eight.  Gonzaga seems like they are a title contender every year now.  Just one problem.  They still don't have a title.  They weren't going to get a better chance than this year with so many upsets having occurred already.  They would be facing a Connecticut Huskies squad that hadn't been tested yet in this tournament, winning every game by at least 15 points.  One question that had yet to be answered: How would Connecticut react if they were facing a tight battle in the final few minutes of a tournament game?  After all, this was a team that had lost 8 times this year, so it wasn't like they were invincible.  If Gonzaga could keep things close or had a lead late in the second half, maybe the Huskies wouldn't look as smooth as they had in their first three beatdowns.

Well, we still don't have the answer to that question.  Gonzaga led the nation in scoring this year, but one of the storylines that kinda emerged along their path to the Elite Eight was that they had sort of morphed into those teams like Purdue and Kentucky.  Those teams became heavily reliant on their big man without getting much help from their guards.  And the Zags had become the same way.  Drew Timme was carrying the load for them with the occasional assist from Julian Strawther, who was more of a guard/forward hybrid.  But the actual guards on the team were contributing very little.  Gonzaga's three-point shooting was poor in the first three rounds and their free throw shooting wasn't very good either.  Timme had put up 36 against UCLA, but it felt like he'd need at least 40 against Connecticut if the guards didn't step up their game.  Early on in this one, Timme must have realized he was going to have to shoulder the load again.  The Zags had several open threes in the first few minutes and two of them wound up being airballs.  It was going to be get the ball into the post or use transition offense if Gonzaga was going to make it to the Final Four.  For Connecticut, their attack was much more well-balanced.  And surprisingly, it was their big man,  Adama Sanogo, who was facilitating their offense.  Gonzaga didn't want Timme getting into foul trouble guarding Sanogo, so they would often double-team him.  Sanogo found his open teammates, finishing the first with 5 assists, a career high for him.  Finding open teammates was the theme of the first half for the Huskies, so it was appropriate that the half ended with Connecticut getting the ball to an open Alex Karajan for a three that extended their lead to 7 at the break.

Connecticut had broken several of their games open early in the second half, so Gonzaga would need a hot start to keep their chances alive.  That did not happen.  Timme, who picked up two fouls in the last 5 minutes of the first half, was called for an offensive foul less than 30 seconds into the second half.  Two minutes later, he was called for a very dubious foul.  That 4th foul would mark the end of Gonzaga's season for all intents and purposes.  Not because the Zags were going to come back and win this game (all indications at that point were that Gonzaga's guards couldn't hit enough shots to keep the team in it).  Rather the Zags had become lost on the offensive end without Timme on the court.  And with more than 17 minutes to play and 4 fouls, he was destined to be off the court for a while.  Connecticut immediately went for the jugular.  They led by 10 when Timme went to the bench.  A minute later, the lead was 18.  Everyone in a Gonzaga uniform looked like they had no hope left.  Eventually, Connecticut would be up by as much as 33 points.  The final margin would be 28, as Connecticut rolls on to the Final Four with another blowout victory, winning the West region by a score of 82-54.

As with the other game, a few comments about these teams.  Gonzaga has been a great program for nearly 20 years now, but you start to wonder whether they wouldn't trade spots with Virginia, a team known for getting upset in the early rounds of this tournament over and over again, but who managed to put it together one time to win a title.  As for Connecticut, they are going to be the big favorites in Houston next weekend.  During the Texas game last night, the commentator working the game was asked in the final moments if Texas was now the favorite as the highest seed remaining.  He responded "obviously they are".  That statement seemed dubious then and seems downright foolish now.  Even if the Longhorns blow out Miami tomorrow afternoon, my guess is that Vegas would still make them an underdog to this Huskies team that is firing on all cylinders at the moment.  One other note about Connecticut: all 8 of their losses this season were to Big East teams.  And there is still one Big East team lurking in the bracket.  That would be Creighton, who gave the Huskies one of those L's.  Would be an interesting title game if they met up.

Time for pool standings and with so many upsets, there is a bit of clarity even with 5 games remaining to be played.  In each pool, there are three people still alive to be champion.  In the Main Pool, Christopher's bracket is done, but he holds a 5 point lead.  I would need Miami to beat Texas and then have a favorable tiebreaker result to catch him.  Alex Peerenboom needs Texas to get to the title game to win the pool.  Fred Alcaro is currently in third, but like Christopher, his bracket is finished.  In the Gamblers Pool, I'm leading by 4 points over Christopher, who needs Miami to reach the final to win.  Dwight Crowley can still win if Texas gets to the title game and he beats me in the tiebreaker.  Natalie Schweitzer is sitting in 3rd and can finish as high as 2nd if Texas beats Miami and then loses to Connecticut in the Final Four.

Full standings and more can be found here.

Two more spots to be filled in the Final Four.  San Diego State and Creighton will decide the South region in the first game, with the winner taking on Florida Atlantic next weekend.  Then Miami and Texas clash to see who will take on the juggernaut known as Connecticut.  Enjoy the games!

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