Tuesday, March 28, 2023

March Madness 2023 - The Perfect Storm

The Final Four is set.  And nearly all the brackets are done.  Find the almost fully complete pool standings here.

Who was going to take on the refuse-to-lose Florida Atlantic Owls in the national semifinals?  A surprising rematch would determine that answer.  San Diego State and Creighton were meeting in the tournament for the second season in a row, though there were much bigger stakes on the line this time around.  These teams met in round one last year, with San Diego State blowing a late nine point lead then losing in overtime.  That might have given the Aztecs some extra motivation in this one, although how much extra motivation do you need when your school's first Final Four appearance is on the line (true for both schools)?

Most of this game was played at San Diego State's pace, another disadvantage for the Bluejays, but Creighton held the lead for much of this game despite that.  They weren't hitting as many three-pointers as they typically do, but they were getting the ball inside to big man Ryan Kalkbrenner, who was a nightmare matchup for San Diego State.  The low-scoring affair went to halftime with Creighton holding a 33-28 edge.  It was avert your eyes time in the second half.  There is no way to describe the opening 12 minutes of half number two as anything but ugly.  Neither team could convert offensively without any regularity, as they would combine to score 23 points during those 12 minutes.  Tennessee had spoken about making Duke "play in the mud" during their second round game and San Diego State was doing something similar here.  The offense picked up a little in the home stretch as the Aztecs would go on an 11-3 run to nose their way back in front, a position they had not been in since very early in the game.  But their biggest lead in this game would only be 4 as they could not pull away from this pesky Creighton squad.  The Aztecs looked like they might be in control after a Bluejays miss with 40 seconds to play as they had a two point lead and could run out most of the clock.  But as we saw in their game against Alabama (and in their late game collapse against this Creighton team in round one last year), San Diego State might be the worst team in the country against a press.  First, they tried to inbound the ball and couldn't, forcing them to call a timeout to avoid a five-second call against them.  Somehow they drew up one of the worst inbounds passes you will see in a basketball game at any level.  San Diego State's Adam Seiko (who was playing against his brother, Creighton's Arthur Kaluma, in yet another odd subplot from this game) decided to try and lob the ball from the sideline back towards a teammate that was running towards Creighton's basket.  The pass was overthrown, Creighton easily picked it off and laid the ball in to tie the game.  I know the backwards heave from the Virginia game was more shocking because it led to a last second three that won the game for Furman, but this play was just way worse in terms of fundamentals than that one was.

San Diego State may have blown the lead on that dumb play, but Creighton would make all of the head scratching decisions over the last 33 seconds.  San Diego State clearly was having trouble with the press, but with the game now tied, the Bluejays backed off and let the Aztecs walk the ball up the court on the next possession.  Because there was slightly more than 30 seconds left, San Diego State was going to have to shoot the ball and Creighton would likely get one more shot at winning the game.  But with a foul to give before the Aztecs were in the bonus, Creighton decided to foul San Diego State on purpose with just under 7 seconds to play and about 4 seconds on the shot clock.  That foul would normally reset the shot clock to 20 seconds, but with only 7 seconds left, the shot clock was turned off, meaning San Diego State could take the last shot of the game.  Bizarre decision.  The Aztecs tried to inbound the ball and had all sorts of trouble again as Creighton pressured the inbounds pass, but San Diego State eventually got it in.  The ball would get passed to their savior in this regional, guard Darrion Trammell.  He drove around the player guarding him, pulled up at the foul line and took a jumper.  It would be short and to the left, as Trammell fell to the floor on his left side.  And as the ball hit the rim, a whistle could be heard.  The refs called a foul on Creighton's Ryan Nembhard with 1.2 seconds to go.  There was plenty of uproar about this call.  Some believe you can't make that call with 1.2 seconds to go, which I personally believe is crazy.  If you're calling it with 15 minutes left, it should be called with 1 second left.  Or don't call it with 15 minutes left if it is truly a borderline call.  But be consistent.  The other issue was that Nembhard had drawn the call by putting his hand on Trammell's hip, which didn't seem like much contact at all.  But I would submit to you that if you jump straight up in the air, it is really hard to land sideways from that position unless you're given some assistance (go ahead, try it!).  It might not have looked like much, but Nembhard definitely gave him a nudge to the left, which seemed to have affected the shot, which missed to the left.  No matter what anyone else thought, the ref called the foul and Trammell was going to the line.  He missed the first (ball don't lie?), putting maximum pressure on himself for the second free throw.  But that one was pure, leaving Creighton with nothing more than a full court Hail Mary to win the game.  And they came close to at least increasing their chances.  They threw a full court heave that hit the fingers of several players before falling out of bounds.  And on replay, it looked like 0.1 seconds remained when the ball hit out of bounds.  So even though the Bluejays would only be able to tap the ball into the hoop with that amount of time on the clock, they happened to have a 7'1" dude who was considerably taller than anybody on the Aztecs roster and they would be taking the ball out right next to their hoop if they were awarded possession.  But the refs determined that the clock didn't start immediately when the ball was touched, meaning the 0.1 should have run off and the game was over.  Plenty of controversy late, but it is San Diego State heading to Houston after a 57-56 victory over Creighton.

One more ticket to be punched and that ticket would go to the victor of the Midwest region.  Miami had ended Houston's hopes of playing the Final Four in their home city when they beat them in the Sweet 16.  Now they would be attempting to end Texas' hopes of playing the Final Four in their home state.  The Longhorns would once again be without the guy who led them through the first two rounds of this tournament, Dylan Disu, but they showed in the last round that they were perfectly capable of destroying a very good team without him as they dismissed Xavier without much trouble.  It was the Hurricanes who got off to a hot start in this one, racing out to a 9-2 lead, but that lead would be short-lived.  Texas shook off the jitters and went on a 15-4 run to put themselves out in front.  They would maintain and eventually extend that lead to 8 by halftime.  One fun note from the late stages of the first half: Miami's Nigel Pack was driving towards the corner and had a little too much momentum, so as he was falling out of bounds, he put up a desperation jumper that found its way into the hoop.  But the refs waved it off.  Why?  Because in the college game, you are not allowed to shoot over the backboard.  And that was the only angle Pack had because he was falling out of bounds.  This wouldn't be the last unique Miami play of the game.

In the second half, Texas increased their lead even further, giving the impression that Miami's magical run may be coming to a conclusion.  The Longhorns led by 13 and were on defense as Miami inbounded the ball under their own hoop.  Now you might not be able to shoot over the backboard, but you know what you are allowed to do in the college game?  Bounce an inbounds pass off the opponent's ass and then dunk the ball furiously!  Texas made the mistake of defending the inbounds pass with their backs turned to the guy with the ball.  Miami's Wooga Poplar took notice, bounced it off the defender's butt, and then slammed it home.  The Hurricanes run didn't start immediately as a result of this play, but it was a moment where Miami suddenly seemed to have life again.  A few minutes later, Miami would go on a 13-2 run to take their first lead in forever, leaving the Longhorns looking a little wobbly.  The teams would trade baskets over the next couple of minutes, but momentum stayed in Miami's corner.  The final stretch would be dominated by Miami's Jordan Miller, who was perfect from the free throw line in his 8 attempts over the last 4 minutes of the game.  In fact, this Hurricane was perfect the entire game, going 7-7 from the field and 13-13 from the charity stripe.  Texas had no answer to Miller late and Miami slowly put this one away.  Jim Larranaga brought George Mason to their first Final Four and now he has done with Miami.  The Hurricanes are headed to Houston to take on Connecticut, winning the Midwest regional final over Texas by a score of 88-81.

Exciting news for all those who are upset that their brackets are done...so is everybody else's!  Okay, there is one exception, but we'll get to that.  All brackets in the Main Pool are kaput, but first place hasn't been decided yet.  Christopher and I are tied with 66 points, so the championship game tiebreaker will be needed to determine first place.  I need the combined score to be higher than 166 points, so if San Diego State beats Florida Atlantic, you can go ahead and assume that Christopher is the champ, as the Aztecs would need a triple overtime game to get to 80 points.  Fred Alcaro rides his alma mater to a 3rd place finish in the Main Pool.  Over in the Gamblers Pool, I currently hold a 4 point edge over Christopher, who used different picks in that pool.  One of those picks was taking Miami to make the championship game and if Christopher is right about that, he'll score 5 points and take the crown in this pool.  That is the only bracket with any action remaining in either pool.  First time participant Natalie Schweitzer hangs on for 3rd place in the Gamblers Pool.

To see the full spreadsheet, click here.

The Final Four begins on Saturday with three first-timers and a suddenly dominant-looking Connecticut team.  But if this tournament has shown us anything, it is that things don't always play out the way you might expect.  Enjoy the rest of the week and make sure to not only catch the men's action on Saturday night, but the Women's Final Four beginning on Friday night, as the most exciting player in all of college basketball, Caitlin Clark, meets the immovable object, the undefeated South Carolina Gamecocks, in the national semifinals.

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